An article published today makes a number of claims about Met Office weather and climate science.
It would be difficult to cover all the points raised in this blog, but here we look at the science and facts behind a few of the assertions.
The first decadal forecast issued in 2007
We did indeed publish the first groundbreaking decadal forecast in 2007. It had two headline statements:
- that half of all years after 2009 would be warmer globally than the record year at that time (1998) – This is doing well so far with two out of five years (2010 and 2014) warmer than 1998 and given current temperature levels, it’s likely this will be 3 out of 6 by the end of this year, consistent with our forecast for 2015
- that 2014 would be 0.3 °C ± 0.21 °C warmer than 2004 (giving a range of 0.09 °C to 0.51…
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